Fifteen odd years in the past I used to be studying an article (most likely in Sports activities Illustrated again when human beings used to write down for them) about an NBA participant in the course of a breakout season. The participant’s title was Steve Nash and one of many factors of marvel for observers and followers was not that he was good at passing, that was apparent, however the forms of passes he made. The forms of passes he made have been the forms of passes that had hitherto been thought-about too dangerous, resembling one hand passes or wraparound passes. Threat averse coaches (ie all of them from the start of time) had taught generations of gamers to at all times cross with two fingers in order to scale back the possibilities of turnovers. Impulsively right here was the possible MVP not solely doing the other of the conventional wisdom however thriving as a result of of it. It was postulated that the rationale he was ready to go down that path was that he had been introduced up taking part in soccer (technically not soccer as he’s Canadian). In soccer, the price of a turnover could be very low, particularly within the attacking third. He tried these passes as a result of he had a distinct idea of threat.
I’ve thought extra about that idea in latest instances, partly to attempt to clarify why in (males’s) volleyball errors don’t have a lot relationship to successful and shedding. I seen that whereas whole errors (for the report, opponent aces are NOT reception errors) have been unrelated to successful, whole errors that weren’t service errors appear to elucidate one thing (see charts under from 2021 Olympics). How can that be? An error is an error. One level is one level. Absolutely. But when we’ve ever watched any match of any sport we all know that not all factors are equal and never all errors are equal. So I got here up with the thought of the chance price of errors. In males’s volleyball, the possibility of successful a degree on serve is comparatively small. So an error loses us solely ‘comparatively small’ likelihood of successful a degree. An assault error then again prices us much more as the possibility of successful a degree if an assault is within the court docket is comparatively excessive. The time of the set additionally adjustments the price of error. We have already studied that winning / losing points at different parts of the set have different impacts on win probability. So it appears the strategy is likely to be logical. We would even be capable of put quantity values to totally different sorts of errors utilizing anticipated values from our league datasets.