As you already know, I’m a curious soul and I’m at all times eager to check empirically the handed on knowledge of the ages. Let’s name it conventional wisdom. There isn’t any extra strong piece of typical knowledge than the effectiveness of timeouts. Together with my esteemed colleagues at Science Untangled I’ve examined this knowledge on a number of (okay, many) events. A number of the particular research we’ve performed are here. Extra basic ideas on the subject are here.
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The final three seasons of Volleyball Nations League (VNL) have used three totally different timeout codecs. I believed it is likely to be enjoyable, (okay, fascinating) (okay, that’s in all probability a stretch too, however you’ve learn this far…) to analysis. That is what got here up.
The three methods used have been
2021 – two timeouts per staff per set, ie the normal
2022 – one timeout per staff per set
2023 – one timeout per staff per set earlier than both staff scored their twelfth level, and one timeout after the twelfth level. That may be a one or two timeout per set rule on a ‘use it or lose it’ foundation.
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Not surprisingly there was a transparent distinction within the variety of timeouts per set primarily based on the system. It’s clearly Volleyball World’s aim to cut back the variety of breaks in play, particularly due to the time taken for the Video Problem System. The variety of timeouts taken was:
2021 – 2.54 complete timeouts per set
2022 – 1.05 complete timeouts per set
2023 – 2.13 complete timeouts per set
If the aim was to cut back breaks in play, the ‘use it or lose it’ system was not practically as profitable because the one timeout per set system. Why may which have been? Maybe if we have a look at the distribution of timeouts taken we are going to be taught one thing.
The dimensions is identical for every season, so we will see some very clear variations. Two timeouts results in extra timeouts after about 16 factors. It’s logical, maybe, that on the finish of the units timeouts are extra useful. One timeout has an identical profile, maybe some extra taken at first of the match. ‘Use it or lose it’ presents a very totally different profile. Probably the most timeouts, by far, are taken on the ninth, tenth and eleventh factors. This illustration is much more stark. Search for the new spot.
This illustration additionally appears to point out that the main staff, ie below the road, takes extra timeouts than below the 2 timeout system. And particularly takes extra timeouts earlier than the eleventh level. Which begs the query why?
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If coaches had at all times thought that a very powerful factors have been the factors between eight and eleven, they might at all times have taken timeouts throughout that interval and the timeout profiles can be related for 2021 and 2023. That’s not what the info exhibits. One thing else should have occurred to make coaches take timeouts at that time of the set. The sport itself has not modified, the one factor to have modified is the foundations. One clarification is that coaches took timeouts solely as a result of they might in any other case lose them. Certainly I witnessed one coach take a timeout main 11-9, after a sideout, breaking all the regular ‘guidelines’ of taking timeouts. I need to admit I discover this fairly bizarre. Timeouts are conventionally efficient as a result of they break an opponent’s momentum (a kettle of fish I’ve by no means dipped my ft into). Taking a timeout within the above circumstance appears to be considerably self defeating, for those who assume that timeouts work in that approach.
It’s all very fascinating.
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